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March 2007

2.3.2007 - Oil settles below $62, ending run-up
Crude prices end seven-day rally on continued economic worries; U.S. gasoline inventories dip.

2.3.2007 - Commodities remain under pressure
Precious metals came under pressure as speculators liquidated profitable positions to cover losses elsewhere but base metals displayed some resilience in a turbulent week for commodities.

2.3.2007 - Fed funds futures show good chance of rate cut
The odds of a rate hike by the end of the first-half of the year rose Friday, as further weakness in the stock market and concerns over the health of subprime mortgage lenders led traders to believe the Federal Reserve will probably have to act to calm liquidity fears. July fed funds futures closed up 0.045 at 94.94, which implies a 76% chance that the Fed will lower its target for overnight rates to 5% from 5.25% by the end of its policy setting meeting in late June.

2.3.2007 - Gold, silver sink on fund sales
The global flight from risk knocked gold and silver hard for a third straight day on Friday, with bullion falling below $640 an ounce for the first time in 1-1/2 months as funds and currency investors cashed out on precious metals to pay for losses in other markets.

2.3.2007 - Yen posts biggest weekly gain in 14 months; dollar lower vs. euro
The yen turned in its best weekly performance in 14 months, posting a 3.5% gain against the dollar, as heightened volatility in global markets and increased aversion to risks prompted investors to unwind their so-called yen carry trades.

2.3.2007 - CME ups futures margins, including on yen, as volatility rises
In order to address recent market volatility, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased its margin requirements on a number of futures contracts, including both its spot yen contracts and yen cross currency contracts. The change, which became effective Friday, requires an initial margin of Y318,600 for dollar-yen spot contracts from Y260,550, and a maintenance margin of Y236,000 from Y260,550. Similarly, initial margin requirements for yen future contracts have been upped to $2,700 from $2,160, and maintenance margin requirements have been increased to $2,000 from $1,600.

2.3.2006 - U.S. stock futures mixed to close downbeat week
U.S. stock futures were mixed on the final day of a difficult week, with Dow industrials component American International Group likely to get a boost from its new payout policy but computer maker Dell likely to struggle on its downbeat outlook.

2.3.2007 - Why gold hasn't done better this week and what lies ahead
Perhaps ill-advisedly, I am devoting this column to gold's mysterious behavior.

6.3.2007 - Euronext.liffe claims success for EuroMTS Bond Index Futures
A report released commissioned by European derivatives exchange Euronext.liffe to coincide with the one-month anniversary of the launch of its Government Bond Index Futures contracts highlights fundamental problems that the new contracts have been designed to solve.

7.3.2007 - South Africa's gold output at 84-year low
South Africa's annual gold production has sunk to its lowest level since 1922, extending the decline from the world's biggest source of the yellow metal that has also helped drive an almost continuous rise in prices this decade

7.3.2007 - Grey power plays the yen long game
Excited talk about the catastrophic unwinding of the yen carry trade tends to conjure up images of slick hedge-fund types in Chicago and London frantically squaring their highly leveraged positions.

7.3.2006 - Picking up Cotton and Gold
Cotton and gold are two commodities markets we are looking at as good long-term buying opportunities, although we aren't totally convinced the recent gold correction has run its course.

7.3.2007 - Thomson TradeWeb launches electronic trading in Asia
Thomson TradeWeb has announced that TradeWeb, its online, multi-dealer-to-client marketplace for fixed income and derivatives in North America and Europe, will offer Asia-based customers access to its trading platform during Asian trading hours.

7.3.2007 - Gold timers throwing in towel, a bullish sign
A not-insignificant proportion of the gold timing newsletters I follow have thrown in the towel on the gold market, moving completely to cash or going short the gold market.

7.3.2007 - CME commodities to trade round the clock
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expanding electronic trading of commodities which reached record volumes last year. CME said products in the commodities complex will be offered for electronic trading virtually 24 hours a day from June 4. Contracts currently trade during daytime trading hours in Chicago. Terry Duffy, chairman of the CME, said: "CME is a global marketplace and we are committed to meeting customers' risk management and trading needs whether they are located in Asia, Europe, Latin America or the US."

8.3.2007 - Orange juice: A risky but hot commodity
One market that you can always count on as a good source of weather-based action is orange juice. It often springs to mind when people think of the "wild and wooly" futures markets. It’s right up there with pork bellies in the folklore department.

8.3.2007 - Termination of Trading in CBOT 10-Year Municipal Note Index Futures
The Board of Directors of the CBOT has determined that CBOT 10-Year Municipal Note Index futures will be phased out and eventually terminated.

9.3.2007 - Hedge funds rival banks for share of US Treasury market
Big hedge funds have recently grabbed such a large share of trading in US Treasury bonds that their activity is eclipsing many of the investment banks that have traditionally dominated the market. Citadel, the Chicago-based fund, is now estimated to account for more than 10 per cent of trading in the most liquid Treasuries, according to market participants with knowledge of the fund's activity. The surge in the significance of hedge funds has arisen partly because Citadel and others are increasingly using computer-driven trading models that make trades very frequently to exploit tiny differences in prices, generating high volume.

9.3.2007 - Oil slips but gold's recovery continues
Oil prices slipped lower ahead of Opec's meeting next week while nickel traded within a whisker of its record high and gold continued its recovery.

9.3.2007 - Calm returns to currencies after a volatile week
There were signs that calm was returning to currency markets at the end of a week at whose volatile start the yen had hurtled to a three-month high against the dollar.

12.3.2007 - Commodity indexes fight back
Baskets of commodities, established as the obvious choice for long-term investors, have recovered from last year's lows, but are unlikely to repeat the returns delivered before ...

13.3.2007 - Qatar plans LNG first
The world's first exchange-traded spot contract for liquefied natural gas is to be the flagship product for a new energy exchange being launched in Qatar.

13.3.2007 - CME to Launch E-mini® Futures on FTSE/Xinhua® China 25 Index
CME is the first U.S. exchange to list futures on the Chinese equity market

13.3.2007 - Hedge funds are at the gates of the eurozone's cosy bond club
When Citadel, the powerful American hedge fund, quietly started trading US Treasury bonds 18 months ago, its move into a market long dominated by banks initially ...

14.3.2006 - Futures exchanges plan assault on OTC markets
The Chicago Board Options Exchange plans to launch up to 10 credit derivative products, marking the latest effort to capture share from the over-the-counter market.

15.3.2007 - Silver may shine brightest among metals this year
The selling in the equities markets has been brutal and the commodities markets, including gold and silver, have not faired all that well either. The widespread selling has been ...

15.3.2007 - CME and CBOT step up post-merger integration plan
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade are moving up their plans to migrate electronic products and consolidate open outcry onto a single trading floor ...

15.3.2007 - Hedge fund investors embrace managed accounts
The abrupt implosion of the USD9.5 billion hedge fund Amaranth Advisors last year boosted demand for a relatively new investment called the managed account, participants ...

16.3.2007 - Hedge Fund return data: Be careful of monthly numbers
Thomas Schneeweis is an academic. So he views the primary benefits of managed accounts not as operational, but as analytical. He argues that daily and weekly return data (usually only available via a managed account) is superior to the more common monthly data used in the hedge fund industry. Schneeweis tells All About Alpha that monthly data hides all sorts of things from, for example, volatility during the last week of every month, to a high correlation to intra-month shocks.

16.3.2007 - Dollar slumps to 3-month low against euro
The dollar tumbled to a three-month low against the euro and the Swiss franc this week amid concerns over the health of the US economy.

16.3.2007 - Nickel and copper power ahead base metals
Base metals rallied strongly this week in spite of the volatility affecting equities, while oil prices found support from evidence that the crude market is tightening rapidly.

16.3.2007 - Gold inches higher ahead of report
Investors remain cautious on metals market after gold reached nine-month high of $689; speculator report due later Friday.

16.3.2007 - CME Credit Index Event Contract to Launch in May
First Exchange-Traded Contract on a North American Credit Derivatives Index

19.3.2007 - Hedge funds get taste for cocoa
Hedge funds are placing record bets that cocoa prices will keep rising amid fears over a shortage of cacao beans [used to make cocoa] as dark chocolate becomes more popular and weather problems disrupt supply from the Ivory Coast.

19.3.2007 - CBOT board okays talks with ICE on proposed deal
CBOT Holdings Inc., parent of the number 2 U.S. futures exchange, said on Monday its board had authorized talks with IntercontinentalExchange Inc., the energy mart that on Thursday made an unsolicited $9.9 billion takeover offer.

19.3.2006 - Gold ETFs up 1.5% YTD; high buying levels likely to continue
ETFs that buy gold have helped raise the price of the bullion. Around the world, buying gold via ETFs accounted for 19% of the 43.5 million ounces bought by investors in 2006. The US gold ETFs include streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU). The current high levels of gold buying is likely to continue through this year. Simon Constable of TheStreet.com reports the tonnage of gold actually purchased will depend on how investors view the world; politics, oil supply, and the strength of the dollar all come into play.

19.3.2007 - Investors back trader behind Amaranth losses
Brian Hunter, the trader whose USD6.5bn (EUR4.9bn) losses in natural gas futures triggered the collapse of Amaranth Advisors last year, has won the backing of investors for his own fund, according to friends and former colleagues. A friend of 33-year-old-Hunter said: "He has raised money. He is trading in the energy markets, similar to what he was doing before. Someone as young as Brian is not ready to retire. He has learnt from his experience and will be better." Another banker also said investors had backed Hunter. Last week saw speculation that Middle Eastern investors had backed Hunter with as much as USD800m.

20.3.2007 - Bloomberg heads for FX fight with Reuters
Bloomberg, the data and systems provider, is set to challenge the dominance held by its main rival Reuters over foreign exchange trading with the launch of a new trading marketplace. While Bloomberg and Reuters have between them dominated financial data provision, the electronic FX dealing sector has traditionally been the territory of Reuters alone. The data provider has won Financial News best foreign exchange trading system for the last three years in a row. Bloomberg's Tradebook FX, which it claims "ushers in a new era for global FX market participants", sees it launch directly into its rival's territory.

20.3.2007 - Australian dollar close to 10-year high
The Australian dollar was holding above 80 cents and just below a fresh 10-year high on speculation Australia's central bank will increase interest rates as early as next month to fight inflation.

20.3.2007 - NYMEX to offer clean energy futures
The weighted indexes will incorporate biomass, wind and solar companies as well as firms in energy efficiency and environmental controls.

21.3.2007 - CBOT Receives Approval from German Financial Regulators
The CBOT has received regulatory approval in Germany, which now will allow market users direct electronic access to CBOT ag, financial and equity markets through the exchange's premier electronic trading platform.

22.3.2007 - As farmers opt for corn, cotton will climb
Next week grain traders will be walking on eggshells ahead of the all important planting intentions report. The report outlines what farmers in various regions of the country intend to plant for the current year. As more and more farmers choose to plant corn, fewer acres are going to cotton and other crops.

22.3.2007 - Merrill Lynch creates ML FX clone model to replicate hedge fund forex strategies
Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) has laucnhed ML FX Clone, a methodology for replicating hedge funds' foreign exchange (FX) strategies that will help investors to better understand and ultimately access the FX markets with greater ease and at lower cost. ML FX Clone is designed to replicate the most widely-used FX investment styles followed by active portfolio managers. Merrill Lynch research analysts have designed ML FX Clone for investors who wish to gain exposure to FX as an asset class or who wish to hedge underlying exposure to currency funds. ML FX Clone also helps investors to separate manager alpha - how much the portfolio manager contributes to returns - from beta - how much market factors contribute to returns.

23.3.2007 - Oil rises after Iran arrests sailors
Heightened geopolitical tensions combined with a tightening oil market have sent oil prices to new highs for the year.

23.3.2007 - US Dollar Underpinned By Surprise Surge in Existing Home Sales
US Dollar Underpinned By Surprise Surge in Existing Home Sales. Euro Fizzles On Tepid Second-Tier Releases.

23.3.2007 - Aima sets out guide to transparency for hedge funds
The Alternative Investment Management Association, the global hedge fund and alternative investment industry association, has issued a new Guide to Sound Practices for Hedge Fund Valuation.

26.3.2007 - Risk of derivatives 'not fully evaluated'
Fewer than half of global financial institutions account sufficiently for complex financial and commodity exposures in assessing the riskiness of their holdings, according to a survey by Deloitte. The Deloitte survey showed that only 41% of executives reported using value-at-risk models to cover credit derivatives, with fewer than half of them using VaR analysis extensively. VaR is a measure of the probable losses on a portfolio if historically big - but not extreme - market moves occur.

28.3.2007 - Eurex mulls euro inflation contract
Swiss-German futures exchange Eurex said it is considering launching a euro-zone inflation futures contract, said Eurex spokesman Heiner Seidel. The move would put it in direct competition with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, taking advantage of the CME's failure to attract brisk trade on a euro-zone inflation index futures listed since 2005. Eurex is hoping that it can design a better system to tap what could be a lucrative market for traders.

28.3.2007 - Germany's Merkel pushes for G8 hedge fund talks
German chancellor Angela Merkel has embarked on a push for closer ties between the biggest economies in the world, represented by the Group of Eight, and the hedge fund industry in an effort to lower the risks of an economic crisis. Merkel has proposed a plan for roundtable discussions between the world's 20 biggest hedge funds and politicians from the world's eight-largest economies with the principal aim of preventing economic crises through the confidential exchange of information.

29.3.2007 - Wall Street prepares for options market shake-up
Between 2000 and 2006, the total volume of options traded more than tripled, driven by the advent of electronic trading. This year, regulatory changes appear likely to springboard the options market to even greater heights, not only in terms of volume but by radically changing the shape of the market. Participants in the financial markets have taken notice and have scoped out opportunities in the options market. The Nasdaq Stock Market, for example, announced last September that it plans to launch an equity and index options market in the third quarter. Automated Trading Desk, a player in the equity world that routinely executes 250 million shares a day across its automated platform is building an options market making desk.

29.3.2007 - EU socialists call for hedge fund regulation
Hedge funds and private equity pose risks to financial market stability and should be regulated more tightly, top socialist lawmakers in the European Parliament said on Thursday. The European Union assembly's second largest group unveiled a report which it said showed the case for mandatory regulation in a sector that has hit the headlines in recent months, sparking labour union concern.

29.3.2007 - Comment: Energy and commodity investing - risk is pervasive and growing
Gary M Vasey, vice-president for Europe at UtiliPoint International, argues that investors are rushing into the energy sector with little or no knowledge of its specific attributes and risks, and there are warning signs that a shortage of specialist energy expertise at hedge funds and other investment firms could prove costly.

29.3.2007 - CBOT to Launch Mini-Sized Ag Contracts on E-CBOT
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) announced today that it will launch mini-sized CBOT Ag futures contracts on its e-cbot electronic trading platform.

29.3.2006 - Think twice before jumping on gold bandwagon
It's been three weeks since I reviewed gold market sentiment. It's time to do so again, since gold has rallied smartly.

30.3.2007 - Man Group to spin-off brokerage arm
UK hedge fund manager Man Group said on Friday that it will spin-off its brokerage arm, Man Financial, through an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange. The IPO is targeted for the third quarter of 2007, subject to market conditions, and the firm expects to return the proceeds of the listing to shareholders later in the year through a B share issue. Man Group said both its brokerage and fund management arms would be better placed for future growths if they had independent strategies and their own capital structures.

30.3.2007 - US move to impose duties on China hits dollar
The dollar fell sharply after the US said it would no longer exempt some Chinese companies from anti-subsidy laws.

30.3.2007 - Gulf tensions keep oil prices high
Oil prices reached their highest level this year capping a strong week that saw prices rise more than 8 per cent. The increase was driven by increased tensions between Iran and the West and tighter conditions in the US petrol market.

31.3.2007 - Man investors to receive USD4.5bn float proceeds
Man Group will give shareholders back the estimated $4.5bn (L2.3bn) or more it makes from floating Man Financial, its US brokerage, and be able to return more in future because of benefits from splitting the biggest listed hedge fund manager in two. The long-awaited spin-off of the largest US retail futures broker will leave Man focused on its USD61bn hedge fund business and allow it to cut regulatory capital requirements sharply, freeing up cash. The brokerage will be renamed MF Global and floated on the New York Stock Exchange in the autumn.


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